Hydrological ensemble prediction systems: From evaluating daily streamflow forecasts to exploring the impact of selected flood events in a future climate
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- Institutt for geofag [2340]
Sammendrag
Worldwide, floods are the natural disaster causing the highest economic losses and casualties. Flood warnings are issued to inform of potential threats, and allow flood managing authorities time to take appropriate actions to prevent and reduce the impact. Flood forecasts are often uncertain, and statistical techniques are used to improve the forecasts. Climate studies indicate that flood magnitude and frequency will change. More knowledge to improve flood forecasts and to assess the outcome of future floods is needed. The aim of this thesis is to provide improved operational flood forecasts and raise awareness of future floods. An experimental setup of the Norwegian flood forecasting systems was used and included 145 river catchments. First, techniques to improve flood forecasts were applied and revealed seasonal and regional patterns in flood forecast performance. By exposing areas with low forecast performance, targeted and tailored corrections can be applied. Secondly, extreme flood events caused by atmospheric rivers in a future climate were compared to the most extreme events of the present climate. The future extreme events showed an increase in both flood magnitude and more rivers flooded concurrently.Artikkelliste
Paper I: Hegdahl, T. J., Engeland, K., Steinsland, I., and Tallaksen, L. M., 2019: Streamflow forecast sensitivity to air temperature forecast calibration for 139 Norwegian catchments, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 23, 723–739. DOI 10.5194/hess-23-723-2019. The article is included in the thesis. Also available at: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-723-2019 |
Paper II: Hegdahl, T. J, Engeland, K, Singleton, A, and Steinsland, I., 2021: The benefits of preand postprocessing streamflow forecasts for an operational flood-forecasting system of 119 Norwegian catchments, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. [preprint], in review, 2021. DOI 10.5194/hess-2021-13. The paper is included in the thesis. Also available at: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-13 |
Paper III: Hegdahl, T. J., Engeland, K., Müller, M., and Sillmann, J., 2020: An Event-Based Approach to Explore Selected Present and Future Atmospheric River–Induced Floods in Western Norway. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 21, 2003–2021. DOI 10.1175/JHM-D-19-0071.1. The article is included in the thesis. Also available at: https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-19-0071.1 |
Paper IV: Schaller, N., Sillmann, J., Müller, M., Haarsma, R., Hazeleger, W., Hegdahl, T. J., Kelder, T., van den Oord, G., Weerts, A., & Whan, K., 2020: The role of spatial and temporal model resolution in a flood event storyline approach in western Norway. Weather and Climate Extremes, 29, [100259]. DOI 10.1016/j.wace.2020.100259. The article is included in the thesis. Also available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2020.100259 |