Abstract
China’s rise and the correlation between historical power transitions and great power conflict have led to frequent suggestions that conflict between China and the United States may be imminent. However, such dramatic conclusions place to much emphasis on the economic confines of state power while paying little attention to the impact of geography. Despite a considerable literature demonstrating geography’s importance to state power potential, no assessment has evaluated the degree to which geography influences the prospect of Sino- American power transition and the conflict potential associated with it. In filling this gap, this thesis first provides an assessment of the present degree of power parity, status quo rejection and hegemonic counterbalancing inclusive of the impact of geography. Geography is found to be a central contributing factor to increasing alignment with power transition theory’s indicators of parity and high conflict probability. On this basis, the likely future trajectory of power transition is then assessed. By evaluating the impact of economic and geographical advantages on this trajectory, this thesis then provides an assessment of the impact of geography upon the likelihood and timing of Sino- American power transition and its resulting conflict potential. It is found that geography will likely postpone final attainment of Sino- American power parity. Thereby also obstructing the conflict potential expected from it. The impact of geography upon the timing and likelihood of power transition and its resulting conflict potential is thus concluded to be significant as it is found to facilitate both its previous progression and the likely postponement of its final attainment.