Prognostic value of cardiac biomarkers and National Early Warning Score 2 in acute dyspnoea

Abstract

Objective Patients hospitalised with acute dyspnoea due to acute heart failure (AHF) have a grave prognosis, but the European Society of Cardiology guidelines recommend no system to risk stratify these patients. The prognostic value of combining National Early Warning Score (NEWS) 2 and established cardiac biomarkers is not known. Methods We measured high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and calculated NEWS2 in 314 patients with acute dyspnoea within 24 hours of hospitalisation. Their prognostic merits were assessed in the total cohort and for the subgroup with AHF separately. Results The median age was 73 (quartile (Q) 1–3, 63–81) years, 48% were women and 143 patients (46%) were hospitalised with AHF. The 114 patients (36%) who died during follow-up (median 823 days, Q1–3, 471–998) had higher concentrations of hs-cTnT (62 vs 33 ng/L, p<0.001) and NT-proBNP (6995 vs 2605 ng/L, p<0.001), and higher NEWS2 (6.1 vs 4.5 points, p<0.001), compared with survivors. Patients with increased vs low NEWS2 clinical risk had higher mortality rates in adjusted analyses in the total cohort (HR 2.11, 95% CI 1.28 to 3.48) and in patients with AHF (HR 2.00, 95% CI 1.54 to 2.60). NEWS2 provided incremental prognostic information compared with biomarkers alone for the total cohort: area under the curve 0.72 vs 0.70, p=0.042, and for the subpopulation with AHF: 0.70 vs 0.67, p=0.014. Conclusion NEWS2 predicts long-term mortality in patients hospitalised due to acute dyspnoea and the subgroup with AHF and provide incremental prognostic information to hs-cTnT and NT-proBNP.