dc.date.accessioned | 2022-11-23T17:33:31Z | |
dc.date.available | 2022-11-23T17:33:31Z | |
dc.date.created | 2022-11-21T14:44:14Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2022 | |
dc.identifier.citation | Rodal, Marie Krumscheid, Sebastian Madan, Gaurav Lacasce, Joseph Henry Vercauteren, Nikki . Dynamical Stability Indicator based on Autoregressive Moving-Average Models: Critical Transitions and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Chaos. 2022 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10852/97775 | |
dc.description.abstract | A statistical indicator for dynamic stability, known as the [Formula: see text] indicator, is used to gauge the stability and, hence, detect approaching tipping points of simulation data from a reduced five-box model of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exposed to a time-dependent hosing function. The hosing function simulates the influx of fresh water due to the melting of the Greenland ice sheet and increased precipitation in the North Atlantic. The [Formula: see text] indicator is designed to detect changes in the memory properties of the dynamics and is based on fitting auto-regressive moving-average models in a sliding window approach to time series data. An increase in memory properties is interpreted as a sign of dynamical instability. The performance of the indicator is tested on time series subject to different types of tipping, namely, bifurcation-induced, noise-induced, and rate-induced tipping. The numerical analysis shows that the indicator indeed responds to the different types of induced instabilities. Finally, the indicator is applied to two AMOC time series from a full complexity Earth systems model (CESM2). Compared with the doubling [Formula: see text] scenario, the quadrupling [Formula: see text] scenario results in stronger dynamical instability of the AMOC during its weakening phase. | |
dc.language | EN | |
dc.title | Dynamical Stability Indicator based on Autoregressive Moving-Average Models: Critical Transitions and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation | |
dc.title.alternative | ENEngelskEnglishDynamical Stability Indicator based on Autoregressive Moving-Average Models: Critical Transitions and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation | |
dc.type | Journal article | |
dc.creator.author | Rodal, Marie | |
dc.creator.author | Krumscheid, Sebastian | |
dc.creator.author | Madan, Gaurav | |
dc.creator.author | Lacasce, Joseph Henry | |
dc.creator.author | Vercauteren, Nikki | |
cristin.unitcode | 185,15,22,70 | |
cristin.unitname | Meteorologi og oseanografi | |
cristin.ispublished | true | |
cristin.fulltext | postprint | |
cristin.qualitycode | 1 | |
dc.identifier.cristin | 2077490 | |
dc.identifier.bibliographiccitation | info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Chaos&rft.volume=&rft.spage=&rft.date=2022 | |
dc.identifier.jtitle | Chaos | |
dc.identifier.volume | 32 | |
dc.identifier.issue | 11 | |
dc.identifier.doi | https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0089694 | |
dc.type.document | Tidsskriftartikkel | |
dc.type.peerreviewed | Peer reviewed | |
dc.source.issn | 1054-1500 | |
dc.type.version | AcceptedVersion | |
cristin.articleid | 113139 | |