Effectuated sustainability: Responsible Innovation Labs for impact forecasting and assessment

Abstract

Considering intractable uncertainties and the wicked nature of many sustainability challenges, there is a need to both forecast and assess the potential for improvements in sustainability with new ventures. While it is tempting to think of forecasting in terms of ‘predicting outcomes’, such an interpretation assumes a causal logic, failing to acknowledge the effectuation processes often at work in sustainability-focused innovative and entrepreneurial activity. In this paper, we argue that effectuation theory implies a new way of conceptualizing sustainability impact in such contexts. Leveraging the Responsible Research and Innovation (RRI) concept, we develop an arena in which both impact forecasting and assessment can be achieved in line with effectuation processes via what we term a Responsible Innovation Lab (RIL), understood as a type of living lab. After examining the concept of RRI, we delve into effectuation theory, deriving relevant insights for sustainability impact in new venture contexts. We then present the RIL as a conceptual synthesis of RRI, living labs, and effectuation theory. Further leveraging effectuation theory, we develop two tools (the Responsible Innovation Tool and Responsible Impact Tool) to both guide multi-stakeholder sustainability-focused innovation activity in a RIL, as well as facilitate the development of context-specific methodologies for forecasting and assessing sustainability impacts.