Continuous and discrete-time survival prediction with neural networks

Abstract

Abstract Due to rapid developments in machine learning, and in particular neural networks, a number of new methods for time-to-event predictions have been developed in the last few years. As neural networks are parametric models, it is more straightforward to integrate parametric survival models in the neural network framework than the popular semi-parametric Cox model. In particular, discrete-time survival models, which are fully parametric, are interesting candidates to extend with neural networks. The likelihood for discrete-time survival data may be parameterized by the probability mass function (PMF) or by the discrete hazard rate, and both of these formulations have been used to develop neural network-based methods for time-to-event predictions. In this paper, we review and compare these approaches. More importantly, we show how the discrete-time methods may be adopted as approximations for continuous-time data. To this end, we introduce two discretization schemes, corresponding to equidistant times or equidistant marginal survival probabilities, and two ways of interpolating the discrete-time predictions, corresponding to piecewise constant density functions or piecewise constant hazard rates. Through simulations and study of real-world data, the methods based on the hazard rate parametrization are found to perform slightly better than the methods that use the PMF parametrization. Inspired by these investigations, we also propose a continuous-time method by assuming that the continuous-time hazard rate is piecewise constant. The method, named PC-Hazard, is found to be highly competitive with the aforementioned methods in addition to other methods for survival prediction found in the literature.