Trends in seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 and infection fatality rate in the Norwegian population through the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

Background

Infection with the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 induces antibodies that can be used as a proxy for COVID-19. We present a repeated nationwide cross-sectional study assessing the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2, the infection fatality rate (IFR), and infection hospitalization rate (IHR) during the first year of the pandemic in Norway. Methods

Residual serum samples were solicited in April/May 2020 (Round 1), in July/August 2020 (Round 2) and in January 2021 (Round 3). Antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 were measured using a flow cytometer-based assay. Aggregate data on confirmed cases, COVID-19-associated deaths and hospitalizations were obtained from the Emergency preparedness registry for COVID-19 (Beredt C19), and the seroprevalence estimates were used to estimate IFR and IHR. Results

Antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 were measured in 4840 samples. The estimated seroprevalence increased from 0.8% (95% credible interval [CrI] 0.4%–1.3%) after the first wave of the pandemic (Rounds 1 and 2 combined) to 3.2% (95% CrI 2.3%–4.2%) (Round 3). The IFR and IHR were higher in the first wave than in the second wave and increased with age. The IFR was 0.2% (95% CrI 0.1%–0.3%), and IHR was 0.9% (95% CrI 0.6%–1.5%) for the second wave. Conclusions

The seroprevalence estimates show a cumulative increase of SARS-CoV-2 infections over time in the Norwegian population and suggest some under-recording of confirmed cases. The IFR and IHR were low, corresponding to the relatively low number of COVID-19-associated deaths and hospitalizations in Norway. Most of the Norwegian population was still susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection after the first year of the pandemic.