Probabilistic analysis of Vette fault stability in potential CO2 storage site Smeaheia, offshore Norway

Abstract

Reliable assessment of fault stability is key for safe CO2 storage in a saline aquifer in fault-bounded structures. The Alpha structure located in the Vette fault's footwall in the Smeaheia area, offshore Norway, is one of the potential CO2 storage sites with a fault-bounded three-way closure. Assessing fault stability in the Smeaheia area is challenging because of the uncertainties associated with the subsurface fault properties (i.e., fault rock lithologies, strength and geometry of faults, etc.). Besides, CO2 injection-related pore pressure changes is another critical factor for mechanical deformation and potential failure. We employed a stochastic analytical approach to assess the probability of Vette fault failure using the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) and First Order Reliability Method (FORM). The possible fault smear scenarios of the Vette fault zone are evaluated by interpreting the seismic section and the detailed geological understanding. Each scenario's likelihood and the corresponding probability of failure are then integrated stochastically using an event tree method. Overall, Vette fault's system reliability shows a good to average performance range, which has a system probability of failure between 10−3 to 10-4. This finding suggests that the Vette fault will likely act as a potential barrier during CO2 injection into the Alpha structure. Moreover, the sensitivity study reveals that the stresses (both horizontal and vertical) and fault rock strength (i.e., cohesion and friction angle) are the most crucial parameters to characterize uncertainty reduction.