International backfiring: When faced with state repression, are nonviolent resistance campaigns more likely to receive foreign support than their violent counterparts?

Abstract

We are in the midst of the largest wave of nonviolent mass movements in world history; meanwhile, few researchers have examined movement features that improve the chances of resistance campaigns receiving international support. This thesis argues that nonviolent resistance campaigns are more likely to receive foreign support when faced with high levels of repression than violent resistance campaigns. The theoretical argument builds on backfiring in the civil resistance literature, which describes the strategic advantage of nonviolent methods under asymmetric conditions. This thesis offers a temporally disaggregated research design that analyzes the dynamics of 350 violent and nonviolent resistance campaigns from 1945-2013. The aim of this thesis is to uncover if there is empirical evidence of international backfiring. Based on the results from the analysis, I cannot conclude with certainty that nonviolent resistance campaigns are more likely than their violent counterparts to receive foreign support when faced with extreme repression. However, an unexpected finding is that higher levels of state repression seemingly decrease the probability of resistance campaigns obtaining foreign support the subsequent year. This is a noteworthy finding as it goes against common expectations in the civil resistance field, and that calls for further analysis.