Evaluation of global forcing datasets for hydropower inflow simulation in Nepal

Abstract

Abstract Discharge over the Narayani river catchment of Nepal was simulated using Statkraft's Hydrologic Forecasting Toolbox (Shyft) forced with observations and three global forcing datasets: (i) ERA-Interim (ERA-I), (ii) Water and Global Change (WATCH) Forcing Data ERA-I (WFDEI), and (iii) Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment with the contributing institute Rossy Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (CORDEX-SMHI). Not only does this provide an opportunity to evaluate discharge variability and uncertainty resulting from different forcing data but also it demonstrates the capability and potential of using these global datasets in data-sparse regions. The fidelity of discharge simulation is the greatest when using observations combined with the WFDEI forcing dataset (hybrid datasets). These results demonstrate the successful application of global forcing datasets for regional catchment-scale modeling in remote regions. The results were also promising to provide insight of the interannual variability in discharge. This study showed that while large biases in precipitation can be reduced by applying a precipitation correction factor (p_corr_factor), the best result is obtained using bias-corrected forcing data as input, i.e. the WFDEI outperformed other forcing datasets. Accordingly, the WFDEI forcing dataset holds great potential for improving our understanding of the hydrology of data-sparse Himalayan regions and providing the potential for prediction. The use of CORDEX-SMHI- and ERA-I-derived data requires further validation and bias correction, particularly over the high mountain regions.