How do you like me now? Cognitive dissonance and adaptive attitude change in the post-election period

Abstract

Through an analysis of survey data from six US Presidential elections, I examine attitude change among voters in the post-election period. I examine the impact of having voted for the losing candidate and establish whether this effect is different in cases of electoral inversion – where the election winner receives fewer votes than the runner-up. I find that in regular elections there is a consolidation phase where voters for the loser depolarize their view of the candidates. This is evidenced by the fact that they feel “warmer” towards the election winner and colder towards their chosen candidate in the post-election survey compared to the pre-election survey. They give more similar ratings on the “feeling thermometer” to the two candidates after the election. The supporters of the winning candidate do not depolarize their views in such cases but feel warmer towards both candidates. In cases of electoral inversion, this post-election moderation in attitudes among voters for the loser does not take place. They give a much smaller boost in support for the election winner and do not feel colder towards their own candidate. The voters for the winner in such cases polarize their opinion by feeling warmer about their own candidate and colder towards the loser. They rate the two candidates further apart on the “feeling thermometer” after the election. I show that these findings support the cognitive dissonance model of attitude change. In short, a typical election gives rise to a period of conflict reduction after the results are known. By contrast, cases of electoral inversion do not produce such a period and may increase the level of polarization in US politics.