Forecasting Space Weather Effects on GNSS Systems

Abstract

Space weather can have adverse effects on technology, such as causing disturbances of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). As space weather effects on GNSS cannot be mitigated, it is of vital importance to develop a method for space weather forecasting. This thesis presents the motivation for developing a space weather forecast by evaluating the performance of a commercially available satellite-based positioning system over a period of three years. Next, an algorithm that can predict the worst disturbances of GNSS system is presented. The model is validated by comparing results from the prediction model to ground observations. Lastly, a method to monitor the polar ionosphere using only the Swarm satellites is presented. Plasma density variations in the polar cap ionosphere are inferred using Total Electron Content (TEC) estimates from the Swarm satellites' GPS receivers. Together, the three papers that comprise this thesis demonstrate the need for a space weather forecast service (Paper 1) and show that it is possible to predict the worst disturbances on GNSS in the European Arctic region by laying the foundation for a space weather forecast method (Paper 2 and 3).