Policy Strategies for Economic Development in Cuba: A Simulation Model Analysis

Abstract

The economic reforms implemented in Cuba since 2008 do not adequately deal with the structural issues that hamper the country's economic development. The article presents a system dynamics model to investigate Cuba's development process, and a simulation analysis to compare different policy scenarios that may be realized in the future as economic reforms will continue. The results indicate that the most effective development policy would be to combine active public policies to enhance the research and development sector on the one hand, and to foster the emergence of an efficient private sector that will develop the capital infrastructure of the economy on the other.