Climate variation drives dengue dynamics

Abstract

Dengue, a viral infection transmitted between people by mosquitoes, is today one of the most rapidly spreading diseases in the world. Here, we report the analyses covering 11 years (2005–2015) from the city of Guangzhou in southern China. Using the first eight years of data to develop an ecological-based model for the dengue system, we reliably predict the following three years of dengue dynamics – years with exceptionally extensive dengue outbreaks. We demonstrate that climate conditions, through the effects of rainfall and temperature on mosquito abundance and dengue transmission rate, play key roles in explaining the temporal dynamics of dengue incidence in the human population. Our study thus contributes to a better understanding of dengue dynamics and provides a predictive tool for preventive dengue-reduction strategies.