| dc.description.abstract | A central puzzle in peace and conflict studies is why wars end. This study focuses on an aspect of this puzzle: Why do armed actors at some point decide to negotiate? I use empirical data collected on two peace processes in the protracted Government of Colombia-FARC conflict to explain why one pre-negotiation (2010-2012) culminated in proper negotiations, while another (1999-2002) did not. Three important theory-derived explanatory factors are examined: Military power relations, external actors, and leaders. This thesis traces armed groups’ inclinations towards negotiations (the political route) or continued fighting (the military route) back to underlying conditions like battlefield performance, the costs of war, and external actors’ involvement. Also, I analyze actors’ and leaders’ subjective interpretations of these conditions. These factors’ importance is measured by if and how they shift parties’ preferences towards the political or military route. Comparing a positive and negative case of peace negotiation onset enhances our ability to pin-point important factors for why parties at some point reach a ‘turning point of seriousness’ and show willingness to ‘lose’ a little to ‘win’ a little. My results suggest the military weakening of the FARC between 2002 and 2010, and consequential change in military power relations, is fundamental for understanding peace negotiation onset in 2012. The second essential factor is the rise of a new president in 2010, in that it changes the Government’s interpretation of the conflict and pushes it towards a preference for the political route. Also, it raises hopes for the FARC to realistically reach some of its aims through negotiation. The findings in this thesis suggest that the more protracted and hostile a conflict is, the more pragmatism will be needed to end it. Moreover, external actors’ military involvement may contribute to peace negotiation onset, while public support for peace is not necessarily constructive to that end. Findings in this thesis point to the importance of being more sensitive to how objective conditions and subjective interpretations interact. | eng |