Determinants of Small Holder farmers crop Choice in Ethiopia Cases from Amhara, Oromia, SNNPRs and Tigray

Abstract

Abstract This study analysed actual determinants of small holder farmers’ crop choice based on a cross-sectional survey collected by IFPRI (2009) by taking a total of 8,885 sample farm plots. A multinomial discrete choice model, logit and household fixed effect models was used to analyse the determinants plot level crop choice. The sign and significance of all variables are all the same in both the logit and multinomial logit models. The results showed that having more pieces of plots is positive to the growth of all crop categories. Farmers prefer to grow pulses and other type of crops when their plot’s soil type is sandy. But they don’t prefer to grow pulses if they have unpaid loan, more child labour days and high crop output. Farmers prefer to plant oil seeds vegetables and root crops when the soil type is grey, have more off- farm income, more available household members, larger farm area, and acquiring land certification and faced with household shocks. In return, farmers’ preference is against oilseeds vegetables and root crops if they faced with clay soil type, plot’s slope is very steep, high input expenditure, higher livestock value and on time last season rain fall timing. Tree crops are likely to be grown if soil types are red or silt, sloppy or hilly, farmers who had experience of selling more output and on time last season rainfall. But farmers are less likely to grow tree crops if they faced with medium soil fertility, other soil type, and have access to more adult labour days and married household head. Other crop types are likely to be grown by old age households on unfertile sandy or red soil types combined with more input expenditures. When we see regional differences the expected log odds of growing pulses is less in Oromia region relative to Tigray region; Amhara and SNNPRs farmers are more likely to grow other crops to cereals than Tigray region. While the expected log-odds of growing tree crops in SNNPRs is greater than growing cereal crops in relative terms compared to Tigray region. After controlling the household fixed effect a change in plot’s soil fertility from fertile to medium and poor, as well as a change in soil type from black to grey increases the log odds of growing pulses on that specific plot. A change in plot’s soil type from black to clay and a change in slope of the plot from flat to sloppy type increases the log odds of growing other crops but the change in soil type from black to red reduces the log odds of growing other crops on that plot. A change in soil type from black to other soil type decreases the growing of tree crops on that specific plot, keeping other factors constant.