| dc.description.abstract | Over the years, research has demonstrated that conflict spreads to the host country as a consequence of massive influx of refugees. Most studies gathered empirical evidence from African countries and focused on cases where conflict had already spread. In contrast to this literature, the main objective of this thesis is to examine the absence of conflict in Jordan after receiving Syrian refugees that amount to about 10 percent of Jordan s original population over the past three years, 2011-2014. In order to understand the absence of tension, this thesis applies three tripartite determinants of stability deducted from the previous literature: economic and foreign policy, institutional capacity for handling the refugee influx, and the demographic composition of the refugees. Examination of these determinants in the Jordanian situation lays the foundation for empirical analysis. The study concludes that mainly three factors have kept Jordan stable: the majority of the Jordanian people s wish for stability, or rather their fear of ending up in the same situation as their neighbors; the political and economic support from foreign actors and patrons; and finally, Jordan s willingness and capability to control the borders and provide security. This study shows that all three factors are intertwined as stability is being secured through monetary and military support, which helps Jordan pay the military and intelligence expenses needed to prevent spillover from Syria. This support also pays for the political support from the citizens through subsidies and public sector employment in an effort to shield the citizens from the de facto deteriorating economic situation. This fragile stability has been the situation in Jordan the past three years, 2011-2014, but there are no guarantees that this will continue. Regardless of the seemingly solid stabilizing factors, the balance of stability in Jordan is fragile and could be disrupted very easily. Several of the findings in this thesis prove to be dynamic and will likely change over time. The way the Government of Jordan (GoJ) is handling the refugee crisis is seemingly going in the direction of stronger security and less freedom for the refugees. Dissatisfaction between the refugees will grow as the crisis protracts if they are not allowed to create a new life in Jordan. The demographic composition of the refugees is also changing. Initially the composition proved to be a stabilizing influence, but as the crisis persists, more and more refugees are becoming involved in the fighting in Syria, making them more prone to violence. Creeping donor fatigue is also a problem for the future stability of Jordan, at least with the present refugee response plan that is proving to be far too expensive in the long-term perspective. What could be said with certainty is that the trajectory of the situation in Jordan at this point is far from set. | eng |