The (Lack of a) Jordanian Spring: A Case Study Analysis of the Electoral Reform and Regime Stability in Jordan

Abstract

The Arab Spring caused the downfall of authoritarian leaders around the Middle East, but the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan seemed largely unaffected by the uprisings. Why did it not unfold itself to the same degree here? This thesis examines Jordan in a case study of the Arab Spring and explores the extent to which the electoral reform has played a part in affecting regime stability. I do so by conducting a small number of qualitative interviews with informants in Amman and use the interview material to supply my findings based on an extensive use of previous research and secondary sources. The data is assessed within a democratization perspective by four different approaches to democratization: modernization theory, transition theory, sequencing theory and gradualism theory. The link between public control over democratic practices is related to that of representation, hence any discussion of democracy should revolve around practices of representation. The findings in this study suggest that the new electoral law fails to redistribute power within the system and still carries inherent problems that block people from using these institutions as vehicles for popular control of public affairs based on equality. The regime has by various regime survival strategies contained the opposition and fostered a continuation of its previous system based on political incorporation through elitism and clientelism. Overall, the 2013 parliamentary elections and the electoral reform can be seen as affecting regime stability on two levels. First, they served to distract the public and ease immediate unrest. Second, they indicate a continuation of politics of exclusion that ensure pro-regime individuals are kept close, whilst disruptive elements are excluded directly and indirectly. These are factors that make regime stability more feasible. However, opposition forces have mobilized and established crosscutting alliances from which the regime has had to adjust to a new pattern of protests from below –a pattern that signals a fundamental shift in the battle of political contention which threatens the basis of Hashemite rule.