Exploration of the effect of smoking ban in catering places on wholesale sales for cigarettes, rolled tobacco and cigars in Norway

Abstract

This Master thesis researches the relationship between implementation of the smoking ban in catering places and wholesale sales of tobacco products in Norway. It is assumed that along with the increase of taxes and price for tobacco, as well as rising population of snus, the ban should decrease sales of tobacco products significantly. The assumption has been tested by multiple and simple regression models. Regression models have been subdivided by the type of dependent variable and a span of one period. Dependent variables have been following: cigarette wholesales sales only; cigarette, rolled tobacco and cigar wholesale sales; and rolled tobacco and cigar wholesale sales. Span of one period has been one month in one type of models and six months (June-November, December-May) in another. Independent variables have been following: cigarette real CPI for the current, previous and following periods, tobacco real CPI for the current, previous and following periods, snus wholesale sales for the current period, and dummy variables for smoking ban in catering places and display ban for tobacco products. Results show significance of the ban in most simple regression models, but not in the multiple regression models. Thesis ends with the discussion of the results, other factors that may affect sales and consumption of tobacco, thesis limitations and suggestions for further researches.