Abstract
Background:
The Spratly islands in the South China Sea are today the focal point of a territorial dispute that represents a serious threat to the regional security in Southeast Asia. Six governments - China, Vietnam, Taiwan, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei - have laid claims to all or some of the more than 230 islets, reefs and shoals in the Spratly area. The Peoples Republic of China (PRC) is a key player in the South China Sea conflict.
However, the South China Sea is not just a potential scene of military conflict, it is also a rich maritime environment. The sea produces fish, seagrass and other living and non-living resources for one of the most populous regions in the world. The total population of the entire Asia Pacific region is close to 2 billion people, and embraces seven of the world's 14 largest cities. In the Southeast Asian region alone more than 70 % of the population live in coastal areas, and their dependency on the sea for resources and a means of transportation is high. Fisheries in the Southeast Asian region represented 23 % of the total catch in Asia, and about 10 % of the total world catch in 1992. At the same time, high economic growth is overshadowing environmental problems like overfishing, destructive fishing methods, habitat devastation and marine pollution. The environmental security aspect is therefore pertinent. High economic growth, often coupled with depletion of natural resources, intensifies conflicts like the one in the South China Sea. The fact that the area is rich in marine resources, and potentially rich in oil and gas, are some of the reasons why the claimants are aggressive and stubborn in their claims and political rhetoric.
Focus of study:
From the issues at stake in the this complex conflict I have chosen to focus on threats to the environment, and how scientific understanding and involvement may function as a confidence building mechanism through diffusion and exchange of information on marine resources. The interaction of scientists, diplomats and politicians, and the degree to which the claimant states allow science to influence their political choices are the main themes in this thesis. The approach is suggested as an alternative to political realist thinking about the conflict. The research question guiding the study is:
To what degree have maritime scientists managed to promote regional environmental co-operation in the South China Sea region?
Theoretical approach:
I use a dual theoretical framework based on international regimes to analyse the current status of co-operation in the
South China Sea region. The main theoretical approach is cognitive, emphasising the influence of scientists and specialists in regime building processes. Theory on epistemic communities as developed by Peter M. Haas is used to assess the relationship between science/scientists and the decision-makers in the region. To grasp the evident security aspects of the South China Sea conflict power-based theory is introduced. Systemic constraints are making it difficult to integrate the East Asian states in formal co-operative endeavours, particularly in the South China Sea.
Empirical focus:
I have chosen to focus on two initiatives related to the South China Sea: first, a set of informal, multilateral meetings that have taken up issues relevant to the South China Sea every year since 1990 called "Managing Potential Conflicts in the South China Sea"; second, an attempt by the littoral countries of the region, in co-operation with the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP), to establish an environmental action programme for the South China Sea. These two initiatives are examples of a new trend of attempted integrative co-operation in the South China Sea region, and I look into whether maritime scientists of the region have been influential in changing littoral state policies within a South China Sea context or not.
Findings:
I found that the regional scientific community of maritime experts had succeeded in initiating, suggesting and formulating policy choices in the UNEP-case as well as the South China Sea Workshop case. Unfortunately, governments of the region have prevented the attempts from leading to real political action. I also found that environmental knowledge has reached most countries of the region. Environmental ministries are in place, environmental laws and regulations formulated, environmental NGOs and IGOs undertake numerous projects, and environmental experts are allowed to meet on a free basis across borders, particularly within ASEAN. However, even though governments talk and act environment-friendly, marine environmental problems are still not dealt with efficiently. Fishermen catch less fish along the coasts, coral reefs and mangroves are destroyed throughout the region, pollution from traffic at sea, from land based industries and from the growing cities of the region keep flowing untreated into coastal waters, etc. The environmental experts try to inform their governments about risks and challenges, but so far the governments of the region have not been prepared to prioritise management and protection of the marine environment.
So why is it governments of the region do not follow expert advice? First, during the last decade a situation has emerged where China is facing its Southeast Asian counterparts in a contest for natural resources and sovereignty to islands. Latent conflicts have been brought to the surface, and threaten to destabilise the region. Thus, high politics, vital state interests, are at stake. My conclusion is that approaches emphasising narrow state interests and power politics score rather high in describing state interaction in this region, whereas explanations emphasising co-operation and the influence of non-governmental actors make a rather low score in comparison. But this is not to say that environmental experts have no influence at all, it is rather that their influence is limited to agenda setting and the framing of issues raised for discussion. Marine scientists have been influential in attracting the interest and attention of governments and decision makers, and also in promoting knowledge about the environmental situation, but still this knowledge is not reflected in state policies of various reasons.
Second, domestic conditions also prevent governments from taking part in regional environmental initiatives. These domestic factors are closely related to the level of economic development. As experienced in relation to the "Indonesian haze", economic and administrative inadequacies prevent government policies from being effective. Indonesia's neighbours also remain reluctant to express "enough is enough". The 'Asian Way' of interacting within the ASEAN community implies that all members have to refrain from commenting on internal affairs in a neighbouring country. The 'Asian Way' allows the ASEAN countries, as well as other Asian nations clinging to the 'Asian Way', to give priority to short-sighted national interests even though it may harm the interests of neighbouring countries. Some say that the 'Asian Way' of co-operation is ineffective and just another reason for the leaders to play golf and avoid regional criticism. But, one should be careful of being too pessimistic. Most countries of the region are poor and heavily populated, and these countries cannot be expected to spend large parts of their national budgets on the environment, while the better part of the population live under poor circumstances.
The South China Sea region, as well as the entire Asia-Pacific, is facing a rise of severe transnational problems related to the environment. Transboundary environmental problems have for the first time been documented, published and brought to the attention of governments by UNEP. It is documented that due to rapid economic development and population growth, the South China Sea region is facing large-scale environmental degradation. At the same time globalisation causes new pressure on states to conform to international standards of governance, economic interdependence, and a rise of new actors challenging state authority. The future developments in the South China Sea will not only have effects for the hundreds of millions of coastal inhabitants in the region, these environmental problems concern anyone as the effects of the current trend of environmental degradation will have effects on a global scale. Sea-level rising and loss of biodiversity are two evident examples.