| dc.description.abstract | "THE LIMITS OF CONFLICT MANAGEMENT IN A DIVIDED SOCIETY: AN ANALYSIS BY CONSOCIATIONAL THEORY OF TWO POTENTIAL CO-OPERATIVE EFFORTS IN NORTHERN IRELAND IN THE YEARS 1985-1992".
The ongoing violent conflict in Northern Ireland is a conflict which I have followed with great interest for years. In this thesis, my focus has been to study the political elite in Northern Ireland and find whether an increase in the level of elite cooperation, then political stability could be identified. The political elite consists of the five largest political parties: Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), Democratic Ulster Party (DUP), Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP), Alliance Party (AP) and Sinn Fein (SF). The period I analyse, is the years 1985-1992. In this period, two potential elite co-operative efforts happened, which might have increased the level of cooperation and political stability: The Anglo-Irish Agreement (1985) and the Brooke Initiative (1990-1992). The theoretical approach I have used, is Arend Lijphart' S consociational theory, that is, I have chosen some parts of theory and one of the main hypotheses to analyse the following problem:
Has elite co-operation by the political elite in Northern Ireland affected political stability in a positive way in the years 1985-1992?
To analyse this approach, the independent variable, elite co-operation, and the dependent variable, political stability, are tested by five sub-hypotheses, derived from theory. The main aim of this testing, is to examine the support for the main hypothesis:
If an increase in the level of elite co-operation is found in the years 1985-1992, then an increase in the level of political stability in Northern Ireland can be expected in the same period.
The sub-hypotheses are made to support this hypothesis, and of course the approach to the problem. The results of the testing showed that I only found a small increase in the level of elite co-operation in the years 1990-1992. Testint the level of political stability separately, I found that there was no increase in this period, or in the period as such. From these results I have concluded that my main hypothesis was almost not supported, since only a small increase in the level of elite co-operation and no positive effect or increase in the level of political stability were found. Yet, theory's hypothesis/assertion that if a low level of elite co-operation is identified, one can only expect a low level of political stability, has been supported, or to be precise, confirmed. But what more does this analysis tell us? Because I have not found that the conditions described in theory, exist in Northern Ireland in the period of analysis, how relevant is then theory? It is a theory specificly suited for a plural society like Northern Ireland. Consociational theory's conditions can be regarded as advices for achieving a society where the divided people can co-exist. Actually, I have by this analysis increased the understanding of why there is a conflict in Northern Ireland by analysing the two variables of consociatioanal theory in the Years 1985-1992. It can be stated that theory limits the analysis by its perspective; I have chosen to only use one independent (there are two in the original model of analysis) and one dependent variable, but it show both the limits of a case like Northern Ireland and the potential, as a theory which challenges democratic pessimists. | nor |