The Effect of International Sport Events on the Capacity for and Use of Digital Repression - a quantitative analysis of autocratic host countries between 2000 -2022

Abstract

International sport events, such as the FIFA World Cup in football and the Olympic Games, capture the attention of millions of people worldwide. Autocratic regimes may view hosting such events as an opportunity to enhance their international and domestic standing, but they also face an increased risk of international media exposing their human rights violations. The potential momentum generated by criticism and scrutiny from the international community can be leveraged by the opposition, ultimately threatening the survival of the regime. While previous research has focused on how autocrats use overt forms of physical repression to navigate this scrutiny-publicity dilemma, the 21st century presents a new era with the rise of modern communication technologies enabling covert forms of digital repression. Using dynamic panel regressions and data from the Digital Society Project, measuring both the capacity for and actual use of different digital repressive means, I find that autocracies hosting international sporting events increase their capacity for digital repression one year prior to the event, with positive effects lasting for six years afterward. However, my results are mixed concerning the actual use of digital repression - suggesting an increase only in some model specification. Overall, my results suggest that autocracies use international sport events to enhance their ability to censor and surveil their population, thus highlighting a new risk associated with awarding international sporting events to countries that demonstrate a lack of respect for human rights. Finally, it emphasizes the necessity of sustained international monitoring of autocratic hosts in the years following such events.