dc.date.accessioned | 2024-02-21T18:11:25Z | |
dc.date.available | 2024-02-21T18:11:25Z | |
dc.date.created | 2023-03-14T12:29:37Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2023 | |
dc.identifier.citation | Larsson, Karl Green, Rikard Benth, Fred Espen . A stochastic time-series model for solar irradiation. Energy Economics. 2023, 117 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10852/108401 | |
dc.description.abstract | We propose a novel stochastic time series model able to explain the stylized features of daily irradiation level data in 5 cities in Germany. The model is suitable for applications to risk management of photovoltaic power production in renewable energy markets. The suggested dynamics is a low-order autoregressive time series with seasonal level given by an atmospheric clear-sky model. Moreover, we detect a skewness property in the residuals which we explain by a winter–summer regime switch. The stochastic variance is modeled by a seasonally varying GARCH-dynamics. The winter and summer standardized residuals are proposed to be a Gaussian mixture model to capture the bimodal distributions. We estimate the model on the observed data, and perform a validation study. An application to energy markets studying the production at risk for a PV-producer is presented. | |
dc.language | EN | |
dc.rights | Attribution 4.0 International | |
dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | |
dc.title | A stochastic time-series model for solar irradiation | |
dc.title.alternative | ENEngelskEnglishA stochastic time-series model for solar irradiation | |
dc.type | Journal article | |
dc.creator.author | Larsson, Karl | |
dc.creator.author | Green, Rikard | |
dc.creator.author | Benth, Fred Espen | |
cristin.unitcode | 185,15,13,35 | |
cristin.unitname | Risiko og stokastikk | |
cristin.ispublished | true | |
cristin.fulltext | original | |
cristin.qualitycode | 1 | |
dc.identifier.cristin | 2133780 | |
dc.identifier.bibliographiccitation | info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Energy Economics&rft.volume=117&rft.spage=&rft.date=2023 | |
dc.identifier.jtitle | Energy Economics | |
dc.identifier.volume | 117 | |
dc.identifier.pagecount | 0 | |
dc.identifier.doi | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.106421 | |
dc.type.document | Tidsskriftartikkel | |
dc.type.peerreviewed | Peer reviewed | |
dc.source.issn | 0140-9883 | |
dc.type.version | PublishedVersion | |
cristin.articleid | 106421 | |