Abstract
Characteristic age patterns in future wage growth and job shifts are not considered in today’s actuarial calculations of defined benefit pension plans.Via the archives of the pensionconsulting firm GablerWassum, models for this has been established showing a considerable effect on future pension liabilities. Age patterns also varies from one branch of the economy to the other, leading to corresponding differences in the liabilites. Today, the data amount these historical model calibrations depend on is decreasing and the uncertainty in parameter estimates is increasing. That is, both for the wage growth models and job shift models. The question is how big the data amount needs to be in order to keep the uncertainty in estimated liabilities on a satisfactory level.