| dc.description.abstract | The research topic is assessing the change in the number of users aged 80 years or older for long-term care usage (24-hour care), prediction, and forecasting the number of users in all 356 municipalities of Norway. The methodology involves combining the Statistics Norway (SSB) population predictions and taking the current proportion of the services to make projections as a product. The investigation studies and compares the number of users with the predicted future needs at the municipality level. Long-term care deals with the complex needs required of the patients because of illness, disability, or any condition that requires special treatment. Previous literature mainly focuses on short or medium-term forecasting of healthcare services. Due to the variation in the percentage change of users in the last seven years, it is necessary to estimate realistic changes in the number of users in the upcoming years. The estimate will enable the policymakers to make an informed decision about resource allocation or appropriate actions to cater to the maximum needy population. Therefore, the thesis evaluates Long-term Care (LTC) or 24-hour care services users aged 80+ years at the municipality level and recommends linking the forecasted numbers to the expenditures and services required according to the caseload. The study further outlines the expected number of patients at the municipality level, which can ultimately be used to forecast the spending/expenditure by linking the services required by them. The findings help discuss long-term policymaking to allocate resources or make necessary changes at the municipality level. The study's main findings are the increased number of users in municipalities with Centrality Index 5 and 6 (1 Centrality Index being closer to Urban areas and more facilities and 6 to the farthest). Municipalities far from the urban areas will observe the most significant user change, with fewer facilities that cater to higher LTC users. Following the findings above, it is established that Norway will face a massive change in users for 24-hour long-term care, especially institutional care, i.e. 2.5 times regardless of the type of service. However, the percentage change ranges from 42% to 342% depending on the service type and the findings' determinants. Furthermore, the study finds a correlation between average household income, primary education and centrality index which states that income and CI are statistically significant—finally, the study lists policy-level recommendations. | eng |