The Spring Revolution in Myanmar – Resisting a Closed Autocracy. A qualitative case study of the civil resistance movement in Myanmar after the 2021 coup.

Abstract

Durable and effective civil resistance in high-risk authoritarian settings is a rare phenomenon. Existing research suggests that civil resistance in such contexts is usually short-lived and unsuccessful due to brutal repression. In this thesis I address the case of long-lived civil resistance in the closed autocracy of Myanmar. In response to a military coup in 2021 a revolutionary movement emerged in Myanmar. This movement has retained the ability to be durable and continues to apply constant pressure against autocratic rule hindering the military from full control over population and territory. The analytical puzzle is what enabled the Spring Revolution to emerge after the 2021 coup and why is this movement long-lived despite brutal repression. Research is conducted through a qualitative theory-guided case study. The analysis is based on a theoretical framework of civil resistance and social movement studies, and data collected from 46 semi-structured interviews from fieldwork in Northern Thailand. The key findings of this thesis both explain the emergence and durability of the civil resistance movement in Myanmar since the 2021 coup. The key findings are summarized: 1) Successful formation and transformation of a strong collective identity, 2) Application of nonviolent methods from the onset to effectively overcome collective action problems, 3) Embracement of a leaderful resistance, and 4) Ability to continuously adapt, shift and develop strategies in response to brutal repression from the military regime, ultimately applying a combined strategy of both violent and nonviolent means. This thesis contributes to the academic discussion on when and how civil resistance is effective in high-risk authoritarian settings. It helps to fill a gap in better understanding the capacities and strategies of actors resisting autocracy and authoritarian rule. The findings are context-specific to the contemporary case of Myanmar and useful for further study of contemporary cases elsewhere.