Cold Calculus: Norway’s triad of deterrence, assurance, and reassurance in joint military exercises in the Arctic

Abstract

States participate in joint military exercises for various reasons. These reasons are largely unexplored in existing literature. Military exercises, while serving a purpose in terms of advancing the military stature of a collective defense posture, simultaneously pose as a potentially provocative behavior igniting hostility and provoking responses from an adversary. Against this backdrop, why would a small state, bordering one of the most unpredictable and revisionist states on the world stage at the moment, participate in such exercises? This puzzle led to the research question steering this thesis: why does Norway participate in joint military exercises in the Arctic? With the growing schism between the West and Russia, and the uncertain future stability of the Arctic region, this thesis will aim to understand how Norway balances its security posture in the Arctic. To answer the aforementioned research question, this thesis employs a nuanced theoretical framework anchored in the three concepts of deterrence, assurance, and reassurance. By including the concept of assurance in the context of joint military exercises, this thesis illuminates unexplored dynamics within the Norwegian security posture in the Arctic. This thesis presents five key findings derived from an analysis of Norwegian white papers. Firstly, Norway’s participation in joint military exercises enhances collective deterring signals to the potential adversary. Secondly, joint military exercises function as a platform for Norway to be assured that allies are able and willing to extend their security guarantee to Norway. Thirdly, Norway’s participation in joint military exercises in the Arctic is an opportunity for Norway to send signals of assurance to allies. Fourthly, the directly attributable costs to reassurance are considered low for Norway, and the other Russian military responses cannot be directly linked to Norwegian participation in exercises. These arguments illuminate the fifth finding in that Norway seems to value the associated deterrence and assurance benefits of joint military exercises as outweighing the costs to reassurance that they pose. The findings of this thesis will have notable policy implications, providing valuable guidance to the Norwegian government in shaping future Arctic security policies. Furthermore, this thesis provides a framework for future studies on the dynamics behind the security posture of small states.