Investigating the influence of future climate on slope stability- A case study in Eidsvoll, SE Norway

Abstract

The main objective of this thesis is to investigate the influence of future climate on slope stability, define slope stability thresholds, and identify triggering factors leading to slope failure at the Eidsvoll case study. A slope stability analysis is conducted by coupling a transient seepage analysis using the finite element method with a slope stability analysis using the limit equilibrium method through the numerical software GeoStudio (SEEP/W and SLOPE/W). Climate drivers (i.e., relative humidity, wind speed, albedo, solar radiation) and vegetation features obtained from literature as well as future snowmelt, precipitation, and temperature series obtained from downscaled climate projections, are introduced to an existing hydrological model. The slope's Factor of Safety is calculated for two future periods, 2046-2075 and 2076-2100, under the RCP 8.5 "business as usual" emission scenario. The slope's thresholds and triggering factors causing slope failure are determined through numerical stress testing of artificial water supply and temperature data.