Multisegment production profile models, a hybrid system approach

Abstract

When an oil or gas field development project is evaluated, having a satisfactory production model is very important. Since the first attempts in the 40's, many different models have been developed for this purpose. Such a model typically incorporates knowledge about the geological properties of the reservoir. When such models are used in a total value chain analysis, however, also economical and strategic factors need to be taken into account. In order to do this, flexible modeling tools are needed. In this paper we demonstrate how this can be done using hybrid system models. In such models the production is modeled by ordinary differential equations representing both the reservoir dynamics as well as strategic control variables. The approach also allows us to break the production model into a sequence of segments. Thus, we can easily represent various discrete events affecting the production in different ways. The modeling framework is very flexible making it possible to obtain realistic approximations to real-life production profiles. At the same time the calculations can be done very efficiently. The framework can be incorporated in a full scale project uncertainty analysis.