Bayesian Assessment of Availabilities and Unavailabilities of Multistate Monotone Systems

Abstract

In the present paper we consider a multistate monotone system of multistate components. Following a Bayesian approach, the ambition is to arrive at the posterior distributions of the system availabilities and unavailabilities to the various levels in a fixed time interval based on both prior information and data on both the components and the system. We argue that a realistic approach is to start out by describing our uncertainty on the component availabilities and unavailabilities to the various levels in a fixed time interval, based on both prior information and data on the components, by the moments up till order m of their marginal distributions. From these moments analytic bounds on the corresponding moments of the system availabilities and unavailabilities to the various levels in a fixed time interval are arrived at. Applying these bounds and prior system information we may then fit prior distributions of the system availabilities and unavailabilities to the various levels in a fixed time interval. These can in turn be updated by relevant data on the system. This generalizes results given in (Natvig and Eide 1987) considering a binary monotone system of binary components at a fixed point of time. Furthermore, considering a simple network system, we show that the analytic bounds can be slightly improved by straightforward simulation techniques.