Innovation and long-term planning in public policy: the case of national road safety plans in Norway

Abstract

Vision Zero was adopted as the long-term ideal for transport safety in Norway in 2001. Starting in 2002, national road safety action plans covering a period of four years have been developed. This paper identifies innovative elements in these plans and explores the statistical relationship between innovation and the number of killed or seriously injured road users over time. A statistical relationship is found, but it is noisy and cannot be interpreted as a causal relationship. We show how road safety policy has become upgraded and more systematic over time, and that these developments co-exist with a gradual reduction in number of severe injuries and deaths. Important innovative elements are related to the process of policy development, which now ensures a much broader , consensus and commitment to improving road safety than before the action plans were introduced (i.e. before 2002).